The following GAIN reports were released on September 28, 2026. _______
Australian beef production and exports are estimated to reach record levels in 2026 before easing modestly in 2027, while remaining historically high. Record cattle slaughter is being sustained by a large and increasingly productive herd despite elevated female turnoff. Strong U.S. demand for lean beef remains a key driver, although China safeguard tariffs and temporary U.S. tariff-rate quota changes are expected to temper growth. Live cattle exports are estimated lower in 2026 but forecast to recover in 2027. Australian pork production remains broadly flat as high retail pork prices constrain demand despite previously favorable feed costs. Pork consumption is forecast to rise modestly with population growth, while imports remain stable and exports ease slightly.
On September 8, 2026, China submitted a notification to the WTO under reference number G/SPS/N/CHN/1388, soliciting comments on an updated draft of the National Food Safety Standard for MRLs for Veterinary Drugs in Foods. Comments may be submitted to China’s SPS National Notification and Enquiry Center at sps@customs.gov.cn until November 7, 2026. This report provides an unofficial translation of the draft regulation.
FAS Cairo estimates a decrease in Egypt’s wheat imports for marketing year 2026/27, totaling 12.0 million metric tons, due to increased domestic production and excess stock carry over for its strategic reserves. Corn imports are estimated to remain steady in marketing year 2026/27, similar the previous year. An increase in corn imports from the United States and South America will offset Ukrainian export disruptions and meet growing poultry-sector feed demand. Rice production is expected to remain steady compared to last year, with exports likely to continue to regional markets.
Japan's retail sector remained stable despite continued dollar strength against the yen, with sales totaling $286 billion in 2025 and rising demand across supermarkets, convenience stores, and drug stores. Retailers have targeted younger consumers seeking easy-to-prepare, frozen, and ready-to-eat foods to drive growth. Starting with the 2026 report, FAS Tokyo updated its retail sector data source, revealing a larger market and greater opportunities than previously estimated. In August 2026, Japan's Cabinet approved a plan to cut the grocery consumption tax from 8 to 1 percent for two years, beginning April 2027, while keeping the dining-out tax at 10 percent. If enacted, this is expected to modestly boost domestic food demand and shift consumption from dining out toward eating at home. Building and maintaining relationships with Japanese manufacturers and importers remains critical to successful market entry.
The South African sugar industry was unable to crush sugar cane for several weeks during the peak crushing season due to a labor union strike at milling companies. As a result, FAS Pretoria revises MY 2026/27 sugar production estimate downward from the previous forecast. On August 28, 2026, South Africa raised its sugar import tariff; therefore, FAS Pretoria revises MY 2026/27 import volumes downward. On July 23, 2026, South Africa received a U.S. sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) allocation of 24,744 Metric Tons Raw Value (MTRV) for Fiscal Year 2027. FAS Pretoria expects South Africa to fill the FY 2027 sugar TRQ.
Economic and war-related challenges led to a significant contraction in animal inventories among less efficient cattle and swine producers. Post forecasts combined animal inventory and red meat production to decrease in 2026 and 2027. Post expects exports of beef and cattle for slaughter to be strong due to high prices. The pork industry will maintain its focus on the domestic market due to the spread of African swine fever and complex export logistics. Imports of pork from the European Union and Canada will fill the gap.
Post forecasts Ukraine’s walnut production at 97,200 metric tons for marketing year (MY) 2026/27, a 15 percent increase against Post’s previous MY estimate. Household production continues to dominate the market. This category cannot deliver consistent product quality and efficiently compete in the international market with other producers, most significantly China. Total areas for commercial growers are decreasing due to the lack of long-term investment precipitated by the Russia-Ukraine war. Some producers remain in the tree nut business, but have switched to other varieties to avoid competing with households. The Government of Ukraine's introduction of official minimum export prices created several new challenges for the industry.
Venezuela's total per capita meat consumption in 2026 is projected to reach 47 kilograms (kg), mostly unchanged from 2025 but marking a 164 percent increase from 2018. FAS Caracas (Post) estimates Venezuela's beef production for 2026 at 291,000 metric tons (MT), reflecting a 4 percent year-on-year increase. Poultry meat production is forecast to remain flat at 830,000 MT, while pork production is expected to increase by 4 percent to 130,000 metric tons. Domestic production remains the primary source of Venezuela's meat supply, with chicken meat as the only significant import category, though it has declined significantly since 2024. Poultry meat imports for 2026 are estimated at 4,000 MT, a 68 percent decline from 2025 levels. Heading into 2027, Venezuela’s domestic livestock sector looks cautiously bullish, with poultry production stabilizing near record highs, beef output growing on improved quality and price stabilization, and pork production climbing amid strong demand for processed products.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit www.fas.usda.gov
|
|
| This email was sent to ooseims.archieves@blogger.com using Granicus Communications Cloud on behalf of: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service · 1400 Independence Avenue, SW · Washington, DC 20250 |
 |
|
