After severe frost and other extreme weather sharply reduced the MY 2025/26 harvest, favorable weather has brought Türkiye's deciduous fruit production back up in MY 2026/27. Post forecasts for commercial apple production at 4.3 million metric tons (MMT), up about 88 percent; pear production at 620,000 metric tons (MT), up about 46 percent; and table grape production at 2.2 MMT, up about 53 percent. Exports should rise sharply from last year's low levels: apples to 270,000 MT, pears to 58,000 MT, and table grapes to 220,000 MT. However, apple and pear exports will likely stay below pre-frost averages because Turkish exporters lost market share, production costs are rising, and the exchange rate makes Turkish fruit less competitive abroad. Meanwhile, the large harvest has pushed farm-gate prices below production costs for many growers, especially in traditional orchards.
This report contains updated production and export estimates for marketing year (MY) 2026/27 for wheat, corn, barley, and rye. Post further decreased MY2026/27 export estimates against its previous estimates due to the continued deterioration of the security situation in the Black Sea and intensified attacks on Ukraine’s in-land logistics. Post estimates ending stocks will reach an all-time high.
