The toll of Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been enormous, with an estimated 130,000 Ukrainian military casualties and more than 7,000 Ukrainian civilians dead. As FP's Amy Mackinnon writes, the war "has been an exercise in thinking the unthinkable." Divining what Russia will look like when it's over may be even more difficult to imagine. In a wide-ranging survey of possible outcomes, Mackinnon finds that one likely scenario will be Russia emerging poor, belligerent, and with President Vladimir Putin still in charge. Two of the very best Russia experts weighed in on the war's anniversary in an FP Live with editor in chief Ravi Agrawal. Angela Stent is a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author of Putin's World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest, and Michael Kofman is the research program director of the Russia studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses. Watch the conversation or read the condensed transcript here. "Putin still believes Russia will prevail," Stent said, in a chilling warning for anyone who thinks the Russians might be drained of morale a year in.—The Editors
New and Noteworthy - How Poland Became an Economic Powerhouse: Poland has had an incredible economic rise since the collapse of communism, even as its government has become increasingly illiberal. Are the two things connected? Or contradictory? Ones & Tooze's hosts, Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi, dig in. Follow the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen. Plus, read a transcript of the conversation here.
- Erdogan's War on Academia: The fault lines between the Turkish government and its universities have increased the fallout from the country's earthquakes. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's dismissal of facts as fabrications of his enemies and his contempt for those who point to economic or environmental realities are characteristic of his authoritarian mindset, Seyla Benhabib writes.
FP Live Explaining America's Trade Policy March 1 | 1 p.m. EST Is the United States becoming protectionist? Join FP's Ravi Agrawal for a wide-ranging conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai on the Biden administration's trade and economic policies—and the impacts they have on the world. Register here. Is Biden's China Policy Too Hawkish? March 6 | 12 p.m. EST Is the Biden administration's China policy too hawkish? And how might that be impacting the world? Jessica Chen Weiss, a former senior advisor for policy planning at the State Department under the Biden administration, makes the case that the United States is becoming consumed by competition with China, a strategy that could lead to dangerous conflict. Register here.
Exercise Your Mind Friday marked the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. How much additional Ukrainian territory have Russian troops captured since this time last year? - 3 percent
- 9 percent
- 11 percent
- 24 percent
You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. Click here to take the rest of our weekly news quiz. FP subscribers can sign up to be notified when new editions are available.
Latin America Brief: Mexico's 'Trial of the Century' The highlights last week: A U.S. jury convicted a former Mexican official of drug trafficking offenses, Peru's ongoing protests amplified conversations about racism and Indigenous identity, and the region reveled in Carnival. Read an excerpt from the most recent edition of Latin America Brief below: In 2006, then-Mexican President Felipe Calderón declared war on the country's drug gangs. He mobilized security forces against the groups, and in 2008, the U.S. government began supporting Calderón's efforts to the tune of more than $3 billion. Washington hoped to stem the northward flow of narcotics and worked closely with Mexican officials tasked with retraining and better equipping Mexico's police. Chief among them was Calderón's secretary of public security, Genaro García Luna. In 2012, the year García Luna retired from his position, he received an award from the CIA for his "friendship, collaboration, and support." But the FBI arrested García Luna in 2019 on charges of collaboration with drug traffickers, and on Tuesday, a jury in New York convicted García Luna of five criminal offenses, including a conspiracy that involved taking millions of dollars in bribes from Mexico's biggest cartel to help it move cocaine into the United States. Continue reading this brief online or sign up to get writer Catherine Osborn's insights delivered to your inbox every week.
Most Popular on FP
From Our Partners - Seeking Justice in Cancer Alley: Last week on Heat of the Moment, FP headed south to America's Gulf Coast, an area with a long history of fossil fuel extraction and a number of health problems that come with it. In the second part of the episode, host John Sutter speaks with Roishetta Ozane about her personal experiences seeking environmental justice for African Americans and other communities negatively impacted by Louisiana's petrochemical industry. Follow the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen.
- Enhancing Cyber Nuclear Security: FP, with support from Schmidt Futures and the International Strategy Forum, will convene leading scientists, policymakers, and defense officials to discuss how nuclear risks in Ukraine, recent attacks on critical infrastructure, and scenario planning can inform policy, investment plans, and partnerships to strengthen international security going forward. Register here. March 2 | 10 a.m. EST
Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics' cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? Explore partnership opportunities. Answer: 3.) 11 percent. If the war continues along this same trajectory, Russia will control one-third of Ukraine by this time next year, Graham Allison predicts. Photo: Yasuyoshi Chiba via Getty Images |
No comments:
Post a Comment