\The following GAIN reports were released on October 28, 2026. _______
Brazil is the world’s fifth largest milk producer. It has the capacity to meet domestic demand and potential to expand its presence to international markets. Genetic improvement is one of the sector’s main investment areas for raising milk output. Much of the improvement effort relies on genetic material imported from the United States. In 2027, milk production is expected to increase to 26.7 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 1.9 percent, from the revised 2026 estimate of 26.2 MMT. Post forecasts an increase of cheese production for 2027 to 2.4 percent at 840,000 MT and estimates a production increase of 1.8 percent in 2026 compared to the previous year. Post forecasts butter production at 90,000 MT in 2027, an increase of 2.2 percent compared to the estimate for 2026.
FAS/Canada projects another year of modest milk production growth in 2027, driven by an increase in requirements for industrial milk, and flat demand for fluid milk. Production of cheese and butter is also forecast to increase modestly in 2027, given adequate stocks and stable demand. Overall, the market is projected to have an ample availability of butterfat, while solids non-fat will remain in tight supply. Skim milk powder exports are expected to stay within the limits set by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, as the domestic market absorbs increased volumes of milk protein fueled by consumer demand for high-protein foods.
Guatemala imports nearly all its wine, with imports reaching $23.2 million in 2025. Rising middle-class consumers are receptive to new origins and varietals. The United States ranks fourth among suppliers with $2.5 million in sales, trailing Chile, Spain, and Italy, though U.S. wines benefit from duty free entry under CAFTA-DR. This report identifies opportunities for U.S. exporters including fruit-forward wines priced at $10 to $15, restaurant partnerships with U.S. beef importers, and in-store tastings that convert curious shoppers into repeat buyers.
In June 2026, Pakistan formally approved the first National Agricultural Biotechnology Policy (NABP) and implemented amendments to the 2005 Biosafety Rules. NABP established a transparent and science-based regulatory framework governing genetically engineered (GE) crop research, commercialization, and the import of GE commodities. NABP introduces the country’s first fast-track framework for innovative biotechnologies and product registration, aligning domestic procedures with best international practices. However, there are still legal and regulatory steps that must be taken before the NABP’s objectives can be fully realized. Prior to this policy, cotton was the sole GE crop approved for commercialization in Pakistan. Under Phase I of NABP, approval now extends to nine crops, including corn.
Post forecasts overall demand for dairy products to increase in Marketing Year (MY) 2027. Fluid or Ready-to-Drink milk production is forecast to increase, driven by an increase in dairy herd and government funding for feeding programs. Consumption is also forecast to increase, as well as imports over the same period. Cheese production is forecast to remain flat in MY 2027, while consumption and imports are expected to increase. Skim Milk Powder consumption is forecast to increase in MY 2027, driven primarily by population growth, with increases in import levels also. Whole Milk Powder consumption and imports are forecast to remain flat in MY 2027, due to higher import prices relative to substitute products, though offset by dairy manufacturers steady requirements its nutritional properties.
FAS/Seoul forecasts the Republic of Korea (ROK) fluid milk production to decline to 1.92 million metric tons (MMT) in 2027, driven by the contracting milking cow herd and declining demand amid demographic changes. The elimination of tariffs on U.S. and EU dairy products in 2026 further strengthens import competitiveness, supporting growth in sterilized milk imports. Post forecasts domestic butter production to remain limited at 1,000 metric tons (MT), while imports increase due to their cost advantage. Post projects 2027 cheese production to remain stable at 33,000 MT, with imports growing to 180,000 MT to meet growing demand. Nonfat Dry Milk production will decline to 15,000 MT as domestic milk production contracts, although inventories will remain above industry targets. Dairy processors are diversifying product lineups to include fermented milk and functional nutrition products for adults and seniors to capture emerging demand.
In marketing year (MY) 2026/27, Post forecasts Korea's fresh pear production at 191,000 metric tons (MT), down 3.3 percent from MY 2025/26 harvest (197,491 MT). Summer heat and drought caused sunburn, while late, heavy rains caused fruit cracking and fruit drop, and pear planted area continued its long-term, incremental decline. Tighter supply and an early Chuseok holiday pushed early-season prices above last year's levels. Post forecasts that consumption will fall 2.8 percent to 173,000 MT in MY 2026/27 due to lower production, high per-fruit prices, a perception of inconvenience from younger consumers, and holiday-centered demand. Post forecasts that exports will fall 7.8 percent to 18,000 MT due to weaker demand in Taiwan and Vietnam, rising ocean freight costs, and competition from lower-priced Chinese pears.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit www.fas.usda.gov
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