Table grape production is forecast to increase by 5.1 percent to 205,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2026/27, recovering only partly from a rain affected MY 2025/26 crop estimated at 195,000 MT. Financial losses following heavy rainfall during the previous harvest have constrained some growers’ ability to finance input costs for the forecast crop. Exports are forecast to increase by 2.0 percent to 120,000 MT. Improved fruit quality and domestic availability for the forecast year are expected to lift consumption by 9.4 percent to 94,000 MT, returning to recent past levels. Imports are forecast at 9,000 MT, continuing incremental growth over recent years.
Post maintains its forecast of record soybean production in Brazil for MY 2026/27, driven by expanded planted area and a modest yield improvement. Favorable early-season rainfall has supported planting across major producing regions, but persistent rain in Rio Grande do Sul and forecasts of severe weather in several states could hurt crop development. Post expects most weather-related concerns to affect harvest operations more than planting. Production costs are projected to increase further, driven primarily by higher fertilizer and crop protection costs, while domestic soybean prices are supported by stronger crushing demand and anticipated growth in biodiesel consumption. Domestic soybean processing is forecast to reach another record, supporting increased soybean meal and oil production. Export growth should keep pace with rising production, even as sales to China slow and global trade patterns shift.
FAS/Tokyo expects Japan's raw milk production to rise slightly in 2027 as the dairy herd becomes younger. Drinking milk demand, however, will remain weak. Processors will continue to direct surplus milk to butter, cheese, and non-fat dry milk (NFDM), causing butter and NFDM stocks to continue growing. Lower-priced imports will still compete with domestic products, but tariff-rate quotas will hold butter imports flat and push NFDM imports down in 2027.
New Zealand’s fresh apple industry is experiencing a strong recovery in production and exports following the catastrophic damage caused by Cyclone Gabrielle in February 2023. FAS/Wellington forecasts marketing year (MY) 2026/2027 commercial production to reach 590,000 metric tons (MT) across 11,250 hectares of planted area. This volume will return the sector to pre-pandemic levels, marking the second-highest production level on record. Despite this volume growth, orchard profitability remains heavily pressured by a challenging financial and environmental landscape. On-farm inflation for fuel, freight, electricity, and packaging costs is compounding debt levels. Fresh apple exports are forecast to reach 410,000 MT, their highest level since MY 2020/2021. New Zealand is leveraging its extensive free trade agreement network to maximize competitive advantages. Key Asian markets are driving this expansion, particularly Vietnam, Taiwan, India and China.
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