Post lowers its Marketing Year (MY) 2026/27 milled rice production forecast to 8.6 million metric tons (MMT) and its export forecast to 4.0 MMT, citing an expected strong El Niño and slower paddy purchases by Vietnam. Official milled rice exports reached 792,212 metric tons (MT) in January–August 2026, up about 61 percent year-on-year on a surge in shipments to the Philippines, and are expected to exceed 1 million MT for calendar year 2026.
Post raises its EU oilseed area planted forecast by 2 percent for MY 2026/27 from its Spring report. MY 2026/27 production is lowered after heat and drought cut yields across western and central Europe. Imports are revised up to help meet unsupplied demand, while favorable crush margins and vegetable oil demand are expected to slightly raise crush and meal production from Post's April report.
Post maintains its MY 2026/27 sugar production forecast, down from MY 2025/26, as Post expects El Niño to lower both sugarcane yields and sugar extraction. Below-normal rainfall also threatens new plant cane for MY 2027/28. Post raises its MY 2025/26 export estimate on strong shipments earlier this year and expects exports to fall in MY 2026/27 as production declines. Refined sugar will account for a larger share of exports, as raw sugar faces stronger competition from Brazil and Australia in Indonesia and Malaysia.
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