The following GAIN reports were released on March 19, 2025. _______ China remained the world's largest seafood producer in 2024, with production estimated at 74.1 million metric tons (MMT), up 4 percent from 2023. Production growth continues to be driven by aquaculture, which, according to official data, increased 4.5 percent year-on-year to 58.1 MMT. In 2024 seafood imports fell compared to the record high set in 2023 but were the second highest on record in volume terms at 4.4 MMT, and third highest in value terms at $17.7 billion, driven primarily by imports of fresh and frozen fish, crustaceans, and mollusks. Demand for high-value products, including salmon, lobster and shrimp remains strong, but competition within this sector is high. U.S. seafood exports to China declined slightly both in volume and value terms in 2024. On March 4, 2025, China announced additional retaliatory tariffs of 10 percent on many U.S. fishery products. Post forecasts MY 25/26 China soybean production at 19.8 million metric tons (MMT) and imports at 106 MMT. The production forecast is down slightly from MY 24/25 and the import forecast is up 2 percent year over year. Post projects a slowing rate of growth in soybean demand as Chinese consumers shift from pork to more feed efficient protein sources like poultry and aquatic products. In recent weeks Beijing has placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans and Canadian canola meal and oil. Post estimates MY 24/25 import demand for most oilseeds and products will fall below the average of recent years owing to strong domestic oilseed crop production and continued economic headwinds facing the economy. Colombia's economic recovery together with growing domestic livestock and poultry production are driving Colombia's corn demand. With the rapid development of poultry and egg production in particular, corn consumption is projected to increase in market year (MY) 2025/2026 to support strengthening demand from the animal feed sector. Corn consumption will continue to be buoyed mostly through imports, forecasted to reach 7.2 million metric tons (MMT), with the United States as the main supplier. Domestic corn production in the outyear is anticipated to increase to 1.55 MMT with favorable weather conditions. By contrast, milled rice production is forecast to drop to 1.94 MMT as low prices will discourage rice area expansion after a record production year. Outyear rice imports are anticipated to decrease to 120,000 MT, while wheat imports are projected to grow, in line with higher consumption levels supported by domestic economic recovery. Competition with Canada continues to challenge to U.S. wheat market growth. On February 5, 2025, the Ghana Food and Drug Authority (Ghana FDA) issued public notice FDA/DRI/DMS/GL-ADV/2023/01. The notification is intended to inform stakeholders and the public that new Draft Guidelines on the Advertisement of Regulated Products have been developed. These guidelines provide an update on the Ghana FDA's Guidelines for Advertisement of Food and aim to ensure that advertisements for regulated products comply with established standards, promote public health, and provide accurate and non-misleading information to consumers. The Ghana FDA invited comments and suggestions for improvement on the draft guidelines through February 26, 2025. The Ministry of Agriculture has taken unprecedented steps to alleviate the soaring rice prices that have plagued Japan since the summer 2024 rice shortage. These steps include the release of government contingency rice reserves, a move typically done to provide natural disaster relief. Consequently, demand for imported rice has been strong, and FAS/Tokyo estimates an increase in rice imports in MY2024/2025 but forecasts no further growth in imports for MY2025/26, due to a projected increase in table rice production in response to the high prices. FAS/Tokyo forecasts higher corn imports for MY2025/26 due to a projected increase in feed demand instead of rice, sorghum, wheat, and barley. Additionally, FAS/Tokyo anticipates an increase in food wheat and food barley imports in MY2024/25, following smaller domestic harvests. However, it forecasts wheat and barley imports to decrease in MY2025/26 based on the projected recovery in production for both crops and smaller feed demand for barley. FAS Nairobi forecasts Kenya's marketing year 2025/26 corn production to increase by 15.8 percent due to a return to normal weather, following an unusually dry year. Rice production is also anticipated to increase by 11 percent, as more land is brought under irrigation and yields sustained. Wheat production will, however, decline by 5.6 percent due to a reduction in area harvested, as farmers respond to complications with the domestic support program. Kenya will remain a net importer of all the three commodities due local supply deficits. Import sourcing for corn and corn products will remain severely constrained by Kenya's ban on importation of genetically engineered products, limiting any advances in poultry, dairy, and livestock production. Corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum consumption is expected to increase in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 due to the appreciation of the naira, slowing food price inflation, and macroeconomic stabilization. These factors are expected to increase consumer purchasing power and consumption of these grains as food and feed. Rice production is estimated to decrease by 5 percent to 7.9 million metric tons (MMT) and imports are expected to increase by 16 percent to 2.8 MMT in MY 2025/26 due to favorable import pricing compared to domestic paddy. Informal imports from neighboring countries of lower priced parboiled brown and milled rice from India and Thailand are expected to place downward pressure on domestic rice prices. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. |
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