Post projects a slight increase in fresh apple production in Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25, forecast at 488,000 metric tons (MT), while pear production is expected to decrease to 655,000 MT from the previous year. Favorable weather conditions, with mild temperatures and scattered frosts, have not significantly affected crop development to date. Apple exports are anticipated to increase to 82,000 MT, whereas pear imports are projected to remain stable at approximately 330,000 MT, consistent with prior years. The number of fruit producers in the country continues to shrink, driven by escalating production costs, persistently low fruit prices, and increased competition for land from other sectors.
Cambodian rice farmers shifted production in 2023/24 toward short-term dry-season rice and used more inputs, resulting in higher production. Rice exports are revised higher with strong demand from neighboring countries and expansion to new export markets. Despite global prices declining in recent weeks, Cambodian exports are not expected to be negatively impacted in MY 2024/25 due to the differences in varieties.
The United States has become a leading supplier of beef products to China since its reentry into the market in 2017. This report reviews the development of the beef market, analyzes prospects, discusses potential opportunities, and examines in detail the distribution channels of beef products in the China market.
Post estimates China's production of apples, pears, and table grapes to increase moderately to 48 MMT, 20.2 MMT, and 14.2 MMT, respectively, in MY 2024/25. Substituted by domestic counterparts, grape imports are expected to further decline. Apple imports are likely to rebound, as diverse varieties on the world market keep attracting Chinese consumers. Fruit exports will continue increasing to neighboring countries given improved quality and competitive prices of fruit and logistical costs. U.S. market share in China's highly competitive fruit market continues to backslide, because of advancements in domestic production and quality and competition with countercyclical producers with tariff rate advantages. It is essential to reinforce the luxury branding of U.S. fruit products and to invest in marketing campaigns that introduce new varietals.
Soybean production for MY 24/25 is forecast slightly up at 19.9 million metric tons (MMT) based on higher yield and a planted area of 9.95 million hectares (Mha). There were no significant adverse weather events reported in the Northeast region as of mid-October. Post raised its forecast for MY 24/25 peanut production to 18.4 MMT from the previous report's 18.1 MMT on higher yields.
After the 2023 outbreak of bluetongue disease in Europe, the bluetongue virus (BTV-3) has now spread to three Nordic countries. Denmark encountered the first case of bluetongue disease on August 9, Norway on September 6, and Sweden on September 12. Bluetongue disease affects sheep, goats, and cattle. Sheep and goats face higher mortality rates than cows, but sick cows produce less milk than normal.
In 2023, the value of U.S. tall oil exports to Finland and Sweden rose to nearly a quarter of a billion dollars. This is mainly due to a surge of the price of tall oil as the demand as feedstock for the production of advanced biofuels is increasing while the availability is limited. Because Finland and Sweden will further expand their biofuel production capacity in the next five years, their import demand for tall oil is forecast to grow accordingly.
FAS/Tokyo projects that Japan's fluid milk production will decline in 2025, primarily due to a decrease in the milking cow population anticipated from 2024. However, production of butter and non-fat dry milk is expected to remain steady, supported by a surplus of milk resulting from weak demand for drinking milk. Butter demand, particularly in the confectionery sector, is bolstered by tourism, leading FAS/Tokyo to predict an increase in butter imports for both 2024 and 2025. While cheese consumption remains stable, it is not robust enough to drive significant production growth.
The production of apples, pears and table grapes is forecast to improve in MY 2024/25 from MY 2023/24 based on the cold, wet winter of 2024 and new trees coming into production. With improved fruit quality, deciduous fruit exports are forecast to increase in spite of continued equipment shortages and breakdowns at the Port of Cape Town. South Africa imports little deciduous fruit due to sufficient domestic production. The United States does not have market access in South Africa for pears and table grapes, and has market access only for apples from areas free from Rhagoletis pomonella.
Korea's fresh pear production is projected to rise by 10.2 percent to 202,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, helped by favorable weather and lower incidences of diseases and pests compared to the previous year. This production level is close to the five-year average, with further yield recovery hampered by weather challenges (heat, tropical nights, etc.) that caused sunburn, cracking, and reduced fruit size. Price inflation remained high for fresh fruit through much of 2024, but has stabilized since the harvest of pears and other domestic fruit. Exports are set to expand by 33 percent, reaching 25,000 metric tons, primarily due to higher production levels. Production in MY 2023/24 has been revised down to 183,300 MT based on official data confirming the full extent of yield losses from adverse weather throughout 2023.
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