With a new government in place since December 2023, the biofuels sector is projected to move on to a freer business environment through less limitations and official controls. Changes are expected to come through a new biofuels law or reforms to the current one in place since 2021. Bioethanol consumption in 2024 is projected at 1.12 billion liters, unchanged from the previous two years. A higher effective blend rate offsets lower gasoline sales. Roughly 60 percent of production is expected to be supplied by corn ethanol with the balance by the sugar industry. Bioethanol trade is forecast to remain minimal. Production of biodiesel in 2024 is forecast at 1.65 million liters, 75 percent higher than 2023 because of larger domestic consumption and exports. An increase in the effective blend at 6 percent is expected to more than offset a drop in domestic diesel sales. Biodiesel exports are projected up at 800 million liters, with nearly all exports headed to the EU.
With the expected end of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which severely impacted corn productivity this 2023/24 harvest, Post forecasts a year-on-year increase in corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) at 127 MMT. Corn exports for MY 2024/25 are expected to drop to 46 MMT, based on increased domestic consumption, especially by the corn ethanol industry in Brazil. Rice planted area is forecast to increase in MY 2024/25 to 1.6 million hectares (ha), based on an anticipated recovery in profitability of the sector, though lower yields may bring production slightly lower, to 10.8 MMT. Wheat production was forecast at 9.6 MMT for MY 2024/25, 2 percent lower than the initial projection, due to the lack of incentives for producers to invest in wheat crops this coming season, in addition to the possible effects of late planting in Rio Grande do Sul.
EU grain production in MY 2024/25 is expected to decline from last year's levels due to a combination of smaller area planted to grains and lower yields affecting all grains except for barley and oats. Imports in MY 2024/25 are projected down considering the ample domestic supplies in net-importing Member States. Likewise, exports are expected to decline as crop projections deteriorate in export-oriented Member States. EU grain consumption is forecasted to grow only in response to a slightly higher demand for both feed and Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) uses. Lower ending stocks reflect the tight market situation anticipated, particularly for EU wheat.
In MY 2023/2024, Vietnam's rice production appears to be remained stable compared to previous year. Despite a slight decline in harvested areas because of climate change as drought and salt-instruction. By adjusting the crop calendar and adopting new rice high-yield, disease-tolerance rice varieties have led to higher yields compared to the previous year, thereby, offsetting losses from reduced harvested areas. Export volumes have also remained stable, driven by strong demand, although export prices are subject to uncertainty depending on the export and import policies of other countries. Import volumes have become increasingly important as additional supply source, particularly for the rice used for food and feed processing. Vietnamese authorities prioritize sustainability and efficiency in rice business and production. They have proposed the programs aimed at increasing incomes and living standards for rice farmers, protecting environment, adapting climate change, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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