| The following GAIN reports were released on July 25, 2025. _______ After a challenging start to the winter crop season in the southern production regions—due to low soil moisture and below-average rainfall—widespread rain in the first two weeks of July has improved conditions. Combined with a favorable rainfall outlook for the months ahead, above-average wheat and barley production is forecast. FAS/Canberra projects a rise in wheat exports in MY 2025/26, following weaker than expected shipments during the first eight months of MY 2024/25. Higher ending stocks for MY 2024/25 will boost wheat available for export for the forecast year. In contrast, barley exports are forecast to decline in MY 2025/26 due to strong export volumes so far in MY 2024/25, tightening supply for the forecast year. Sorghum production and exports are forecast to increase in MY 2025/26, supported by positive conditions ahead of planting. Conversely, rice production and exports are expected to fall sharply due to depleted irrigation water storage, which is likely to significantly reduce the planted area. Marketing year (MY) 2025/26 wheat production is under pressure from sub-par spring and winter wheat conditions in key Prairie provinces—drought is a central challenge. Exports, especially durum, are strong. The five million metric ton (MT) year-to-date (YTD, as of May 2025) durum exports reflect robust demand, while non-durum shipments are relatively stable. Feed wheat markets are being squeezed by competition from alternative grains. Carry-out stocks are tightening in MY 2024/25. Poor crop recovery or moisture stress could pose further supply risks. The tariff situation is fluid, with ongoing negotiations and potential changes to trade policies, creating uncertainty in the wheat market. On March 27, 2025, China's NHC and the SAMR jointly released the National Food Safety Standard Food Microbiological Examination Enumeration of Escherichia coli (GB 4789.38-2025). This updated standard applies to the testing of E. coli counts in foods. The final standard will enter into force on September 16, 2025. At the time of the report, China hadn't notified WTO of this revised standard. This report provides unofficial translation of the final standard. Stakeholders should conduct their own review of the regulations to assess any market or regulatory effect on their business. FAS Bogota successfully negotiated a one-year pause to the implementation of Decree 2478, a regulation governing mandatory food facility registration to Colombia's National Institute for the Surveillance of Drugs and Foods (Invima) by U.S. facilities and sanitary authorities. The new entry into force date for facility registration is now July 31, 2026. U.S. food product facilities previously listed will continue to remain registered through Colombia's Institute for Agriculture and Livestock (ICA), which will ensure uninterrupted exports of U.S. dairy, seafood, and egg products to Colombia. This extension also opens opportunities for new U.S. companies looking to export to Colombia. In 2024, the United States exported over $140 million in agricultural goods subject to the new Colombian facility registration requirements. On July 22, 2025, the Israeli Ministry of Justice and the Israeli Ministry of Health issued a request for public comments on proposed changes to the Annex of European Union Directive 396/2005. These changes, which amend the regulation governing maximum residue levels (MRLs) for pesticides in food and feed of plant and animal origin, were previously published for public comments on February 5, 2025. The current publication, which has not been notified to the World Trade Organization, is open for public comments until August 4, 2025, at 23:59 (Israel Standard Time). Over the last five years, Kazakhstan has undergone a gradual but strategic shift from wheat and other grains towards greater oilseed production, especially sunflowers. This transition has been fueled by economics, weather, and government policy. Looking ahead, Kazakhstan is expected to continue ramping up its production of oilseeds, expanding its processing capacity, and exporting more oilseed meals and vegetable oil to neighboring markets. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. |
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