On September 12, 2024, Cambodia announced a six-month extension of the temporary ban on the importation of frozen pork offal which had been set to expire that day. The ban on some frozen offal of fish, beef, and poultry expired. The two Harmonized System (HS) Codes that remain affected are: HS 0206.41.00 Livers of Swine, Edible, Frozen and 0206.49.00 Offal of Swine Except Livers, Edible, Frozen.
The Canadian cattle herd is forecast to sustain the long-term trend of contraction to begin 2025 but will begin to stabilize by year's end on improved feed pricing and availability. A smaller calf crop will be produced based on 2024 breeding stock but heifer retention should improve if feed conditions continue to remain stable or improve. Higher heifer retention coupled with a smaller calf crop will see lowered beef production and slaughter in 2025. As a percent of production, Canadian beef exports are forecast to remain strong while imports are forecast to soften on weakened consumer demand. The Canadian swine herd is also forecast to remain relatively stable in 2025. Contraction in Eastern Canada will be offset by growth in Western Canada. Slaughter is forecast at one percent above 2024 with increased utilization and small expansion in Western Canada. Imports will lag 2024 as domestic consumption continues to struggle.
Chicken meat production is forecast to show a modest 2 percent growth in 2025, based on a stable demand, and considering increased imports, especially under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) tariff rate quota (TRQ). The overall 2025 import TRQ volumes will approach 121,000 metric tons, with the United States expected to maintain more than 80 percent share of total Canadian chicken meat imports. In 2024, as the only country taking advantage of the CPTPP poultry TRQ, Chile emerged as a significant supplier, and is expected to gain additional market share in 2025.
Egypt's wheat imports for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (July – June) are estimated at 12.5 million metric tons (MMT), up by 11.4 percent from Post's earlier estimate, due to an increase in the availability of foreign currency to facilitate imports. Wheat production in MY 2024/25 is up by 200,000 MT from Post's earlier estimate. Wheat flour exports to other Middle Eastern and African countries continue to increase as a result of the regional crisis. Corn imports are estimated at 8.0 MMT in MY 2024/25, a slight increase from Post's earlier estimate, as corn area and production are more than offset by high input costs, lower market prices before planting, and insect pressure. Rice imports are estimated at 225,000 MT in MY 2024/25, unchanged from Post's previous estimate.
FAS/Tokyo estimates lower wheat and barley production in Marketing Year (MY)2024/25 from the previous year as unfavorable weather conditions and disease outbreak have reduced yields in main production regions. Due to decreased production, Post forecasts an increase in wheat imports in MY2024/25. Post estimates higher rice production in MY2024/25 on better yields and quality compared to last year. FAS/Tokyo projects a decrease in MY2024/25 rice consumption as rising prices are expected to weaken demand for table rice and for feed. FAS/Tokyo forecasts higher corn imports in MY2024/25 based on the projected increase in overall feed demand and corn use in feed rations. FAS/Tokyo projects a marginal decrease in feed demand for barley and wheat in MY2024/25 due to anticipated increase of corn-in-feed-rations.
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