The following GAIN reports were released on April 17, 2025. _______ In market year (MY) 2025/2026, FAS Bogota (Post) forecasts Colombia's sugar production to recover to 2.3 million metric tons (MMT) due to improved weather conditions from the weakening of the La Niña phenomenon and expected normal weather patterns, positively impacting sugarcane yields and sucrose content. This recovery follows recent underperformance, especially in MY 2023/2024 when heavy rainfall lowered yields. Colombia's economy is projected to grow by over 2.5 percent in 2025 through 2026, which should support modest improvements in sugar consumption despite the Colombian government's continuing consumer tax on sugar products. Exports are expected to slightly increase owing to higher production, with mostly flat refined sugar imports. Production for Jamaica sugar is projected to fall to 33,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) October 2025 to September 2026, consistent with the ongoing downward trend observed in the industry. Labor shortages, elevated production costs and antiquated equipment remain the main limiting factors affecting production in the country. Despite the sliding production forecast, Jamaica plans to continue exporting raw sugar to the United States under the World Trade Organization (WTO) tariff-rate quota program, while also meeting both domestic and regional demand, especially in markets where prices are favorable. Paraguay's soybean production is forecast to rebound to 10.9 million metric tons (MMT) in MY2025/26 on improved weather and modest acreage gains, following weather-driven losses the previous year. Crush is projected to rise to 3.4 MMT with higher domestic supply and improved crush margins. Soymeal and soy oil production are set to climb in tandem, with exports continuing to dominate. However, the industry remains constrained by rising input costs, limited credit, and chronic transport bottlenecks due to persistently low river levels that hinder barge logistics. Exports are expected to rise to 7.2 MMT, but future growth will depend almost entirely on the whims of Argentina's situation in addition to global prices and climactic conditions throughout the growing season. Uzbekistan's cotton sector is at a crossroads. While opportunities for high-value-added products like textiles and ready-to-wear apparel are expanding, the industry faces financial constraints, shrinking farmland, and water shortages. To address these issues, the government has aligned cotton prices with global markets, aiming to enhance competitiveness and stabilize markets. For MY 2025/26 cotton lint production is expected to decline 6 percent from the previous season to 620,000 metric tons. Meanwhile, domestic consumption is projected to rise to 670,000 MT, with imports expected to be filled from neighboring countries. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. |
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