Australian winter crops have had very challenging seasonal conditions for MY 2024/25, including low soil moisture at planting, below-average rainfall, and frost damage. Despite these difficulties, wheat production is expected to be above-average, while barley is forecast slightly below-average. The sorghum summer crop is off to an excellent start across all growing regions. Good soil moisture reserves and warmer-than-usual temperatures have led to an early start to planting. The weather outlook also encourages a higher-than-expected crop area and supports an expectation of well above-average yields for MY 2024/25. Despite generally favorable seasonal conditions leading up to planting and good irrigation water availability, rice production is projected to decline significantly. This decline follows the decision by the major entity responsible for processing and marketing the majority of Australia's rice crop to impose a disincentive to limit production to a targeted level.
Milk production in Brazil for 2024 is expected to increase by 1 percent to 25 million metric tons (MMT) and to increase again in 2025 to 25.4 MMT. Industry expectations are elevated by larger investments in technology, increase in milk prices and a slowing of the increase in inputs. However, the estimate for 2024 is tempered by adverse weather patterns, including the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. Post estimates an increase in butter production in 2024 to 780 MT and 795 MT in 2025.
Post increased its estimate for soybean production in 2024/25 to 161 million metric tons (MMT), from the previous estimate of 160 MMT. Another record export is expected in 2024/25 with Post forecasting 102 MMT, exceeding the estimate for the previous season of 99 MMT. For 2024/25, Post revised the forecast for soybean crush up to 55.5 MMT, a 2.5 percent increase compared with the 2023/2024 estimate.
FAS/Canada projects modest milk production growth in 2025, based on a slight increase in fluid milk consumption, and steady requirements for industrial milk. Production of cheese and butter is forecast to increase modestly in 2025, in face of adequate stocks, and solid demand. Sustained growth in cheese imports is expected to continue into 2025, as fill rates of various tariff rate quotas improve, and market access commitments expand. Skim milk powder exports are expected to remain within the limits set by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, as the industry continues to focus on producing high protein diary ingredients, like milk protein isolates.
Post forecasts domestic raw milk production to grow marginally due to improved dairy milk yield despite declining cow inventories in 2025. Imports of fluid milk, whole milk powder, and skim milk powder are forecast to continue declining in 2025 due to higher domestic milk production. Post forecasts cheese imports to decline in 2025 due to the decreased demand for processed cheese. Butter imports are forecast at similar levels in 2025. Post forecasts whey imports to stay at similar levels in 2025 as demand for feed use is expected to grow while demand for food use is anticipated to decline.
The Chilean dairy sector is crucial to the economy, producing milk, cheese, butter, yogurt, and powdered milk. In marketing year (MY) 2024, milk receipts increased by two percent to 1,293 million liters, and fluid milk production rose by seven percent. In MY 2024, Chilean imports of dairy products from the United States saw a notable increase of 10 percent. In MY 2025, whole milk powder production will increase by 3.8 percent to 54,000 metric tons, driven by higher production levels. Consumption is expected to rise by two percent to 51,000 metric tons. Imports will remain flat at 4,000 metric tons in MY 2024. Exports are projected to grow by 16.6 percent to 7,000 metric tons. In MY 2025, Chile's skim milk powder production is projected to increase by 11.1 percent to 20,000 metric tons. Consumption will grow by 4.8 percent to 22,000 metric tons in MY 2025. Imports will reach 8,000 metric tons, with the United States being the leading supplier.
In marketing year (MY) 2024/2025, Colombia's corn production is projected to remain at 1.5 million metric tons (MMT), 6 percent lower year-on-year. This stagnation is attributed to declining domestic corn prices, which have discouraged farmers from expanding corn cultivation. Milled rice production is increased to 1.98 MMT, as favorable weather conditions and a slow price recovery supported moderate rice cultivation gains. Corn imports are expected to increase, driven by higher demand from the animal feed sector and moderate economic growth. The United States has vastly increased its market share in Colombia, benefiting from higher duties imposed on Mercosur countries under the Andean Price Band System. Since 2023, U.S. corn enjoys duty-free entry into Colombia under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. Colombia's rice and wheat imports are also projected to grow in MY 2024/2025, in line with higher consumption levels.
New Zealand fluid milk production is forecasted to be 21.3 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2025 market year (MY). This is a decrease on the previous 5-year average of 21.5 MMT, reflecting the decreasing herd numbers and the additional effects of the following: La Niña weather pattern forecasted, improving farm revenue, continued on-farm inflation on inputs, and high interest rates on debt servicing. FAS/Wellington forecasts relatively consistent exports for dairy products between the 2024 and 2025 market years. Whole Milk Powder (WMP) will continue to be the primary dairy export to overseas markets. However, New Zealand milk processing companies continue to shift their processing capabilities from drying milk powder to more fresh products.
Post forecasts demand for dairy products to increase 2 percent to 3 million metric tons (MMT) in liquid milk equivalent (LME) in 2025. The Philippines imports 99 percent of its dairy requirement, as domestic production cannot meet demand. Post forecasts skim milk imports to grow 3 percent to 160,000 MT, while fluid milk imports remain flat at 118,000 MT in 2025. Cheese imports will continue to decline due to high prices and tight supply.
Starting in 2025, Taiwan will eliminate tariffs on liquid milk imports from New Zealand. Taiwan dairy farmers are worried about the future, as the primary dairy product in Taiwan is fresh milk, with only a small portion used for other dairy beverages or products. In the long term, due to a growing awareness on healthy eating, there is strong and increasing demand for dairy products among the Taiwanese population. In 2023, imports of dairy products totaled $654 million, with the main suppliers being New Zealand, the United States, and France. Post estimates that Taiwan imports will remain stable in 2025 with 66,000 MT of liquid milk, 24,000 MT of butter, 25,000 MT of skim milk powder (SMP) and 34,000 MT of whole milk powder (WMP).
In 2025, Ukraine's fluid milk production will decrease slightly due to growth in the size and productivity of industrial farms, despite a larger decrease in dairy cow inventory. The production of most dairy products will contract insignificantly in 2025 on the drop in fluid milk production, continuing population outflows, and depressed disposable incomes. Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and mobilization will be the main risk factors for both milk producers and dairy processors. Exports of dairy products will be sluggish due to the shrinking raw milk supply.
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