Australian beef supply is forecast to begin to recover in 2022 after falling to the lowest level in decades in 2021. Low female slaughter rates in 2021 marked the onset of a herd rebuild following a severe multi-year drought and this herd rebuild is set to continue into the forecast year. Cattle slaughter, beef production and beef exports are also expected to rise in 2022, although remain below pre-drought levels (and far below peaks reached during the drought). Most cattle producers have experienced great pasture conditions since the onset of drought-breaking rains in early 2020 and also benefited from record cattle prices, which has boosted confidence to forge ahead with a strong herd rebuild.
The Brazilian Low Carbon market framework has successfully been set. Renovabio was implemented in late 2019 and has progressed well. CBio trading levels in 2021 (January thru early August) ranged from R$27 to R$34/metric ton (mt) of carbon or about US$5.1 to US$6.6/mt of carbon at the current exchange rate. The National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP) has reduced the volume of biodiesel blended to diesel below the recommended levels since mid-2020, in an attempt to control biodiesel prices which drastically increased due to high prices of soybeans, major biodiesel feedstock. ANP has also proposed a new model for marketing biodiesel which should favor imports. Total ethanol production for 2021 is estimated at 30.43 billion liters, a decrease of 13 percent relative to the revised figure for 2020 (35.08 billion liters), mainly because sugarcane production has been severely damaged and sugar-ethanol producers have favored sugar production.
Post forecasts production at 14.72 million tons in 2022, growing three percent due to strong external demand and increased domestic consumption, both of which reached historical records this year. Consumption for 2022 is forecast at 10.54 million tons, growing three percent. Brazil is the world's largest exporter of chicken meat and Post forecasts a three percent increase for 2022, with total exports at 4.17 million tons. In 2021, chicken exports rose five percent. Overall, exports are expected to remain at just over a quarter of total production, with China being the top destination for Brazil's poultry. Poultry prices were affected by the rapidly rising input costs, which increased close to 40 percent in the past 12 months.
On January 15, 2016, USDA and USAID executed a participating agency program agreement (PAPA) titled Cacao for Peace. The objective of the project is to improve the cacao value chain in Colombia by strengthening key agricultural institutions in the public and private sectors. From July 2018 to December 2020, many of CfP's activities produced positive outcomes for the Colombian cacao sector. The initiative's agricultural extension efforts quadrupled producer yields. CfP sponsored educational and research opportunities for five Colombian professionals with master's degrees pursuing PhDs. CfP's cooperative research launched a Geographical Information System (GIS) web application to optimize cacao production in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta region. The program's institutional technical assistance area produced an analytical study of the cacao supply chain, receiving over 137,000 views. Until December 2020, CfP has leveraged $1.9 million from various partners to complement its mission.
Israel plans to conduct a review of the use of 34 chemicals, which are components of approximately 180 agrochemicals that local farmers currently use. The Israeli Plant Protection Services (PPIS) will conduct the review over the coming two years beginning in October 2021. This might lead to an update of Israel's maximum residue limit (MRL) list for agrochemical residues in both locally produced and imported fruits and vegetables. Interested stakeholders are invited to submit their comments to the technical committee.
New Zealand beef production is forecast to fall slightly in 2022, following two straight years of record production. This is a result of less anticipated slaughter, especially of heifers and steers. In addition, lower carcass weights are also expected. As a result of smaller beef production, exports are also forecast to fall from the records set in 2021 and 2020.
While the total number of Ukrainian livestock remained on its downward trend in 2021, the swine herd exhibited some signs of recovery after low prices and low production in 2020. Both trends are expected to continue in 2022. African swine fever remains a threat, although the number of registered outbreaks decreased significantly. The consumption of pork is recovering, while the consumption of beef continues to decrease as Ukraine's export markets offer better prices for both live cattle for slaughter and beef. However, both exports are forecast to decline in 2021-22 due to lower livestock inventory. Pork imports are expected to grow, inspired by increased demand due to growing incomes and the slow reaction of domestic producers.
Ukraine's chicken meat production and exports are expected to decline in 2021 with a slow rebound in 2022. Slimmer production margins due to increased feed costs led to production contraction by smaller producers and bankruptcy of the second largest Ukrainian poultry manufacturer. Steadily growing poultry prices will lead to some production recovery in 2022. Ukraine will continue to import cheap offal and export premium cuts and whole birds. Accelerated imports will compensate for production decreases in 2021 and to some extent in 2022. Middle Eastern markets and former Soviet Union countries will be Ukraine's major chicken meat export destinations in 2021/22. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks had a negative impact on Ukraine's chicken meat exports in the first half of 2021, but no new outbreaks have been reported since May.
Post forecasts record Uruguayan beef exports at 490,000 tons carcass weight equivalent as a result of abundant beef supplies, strong foreign demand, and export limitations in several important competitors. Beef domestic consumption for 2022 is forecast at 160,000 tons, a recovery from 2021 as the country begins to return to normal as a majority of the population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and are returning to restaurants. In the coming months, Uruguay is expected to loosen border restrictions to boost tourism, one of the country's economic pillars.
Since 2013, total meat consumption in Venezuela has declined 69.1 percent. However, a relatively better economic climate since 2019 has helped stabilized beef production and led to a significant recovery in chicken production. In 2021, beef production is forecast to remain stable at 266,150 MT, driven mainly by price stabilization. In 2021, chicken meat production is forecast to grow about 10 percent to 400,000 MT, driven by a more competitive price. Nevertheless, per capita meat consumption is still far from recovering and continues to be near historic lows.
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