Post forecasts Argentine 2022 beef exports at 630,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (cwe), the lowest volume since 2019. Cattle slaughter and beef production are projected to drop marginally. High international prices have meant that despite government export restrictions and domestic price controls the beef and cattle sector (with the exception of feedlots) has maintained its profitability. However, if these market interventions continue as anticipated, the sector expects disinvestment and reduced herd size in the coming years.
Post estimates 152,000 MT of walnut production for MY2021/22, a 2.7 percent increase over MY2020/21 following an increase in planted area. Walnut exports are estimated at 150,000 MT in-shell basis, which represents a 3.4 percent increase over MY2020/21. Export estimates assume resolution of the logistical problems and delays observed in MY2020/21. For MY2021/22, Post projects that almond production will total 9,700 MT, a 3.0 percent decrease over MY2020/21, assuming unchanged planted area and relatively lower productivity due to drought. The United States remains Chile's top supplier of almonds. In MY2021/22, almond consumption will rebound and reach 7,900 MT due to the recovery of the Chilean economy which will increase consumer demand for almonds.
Wavering and uncertain polices and prices continue to limit fuel ethanol consumption in China. In late 2020 the State Council called for controlling the expansion of fuel ethanol processing capacity. Only a few months later, in early 2021, the National Energy Administration (NEA) urged local governments and companies to support the development of biofuels. While President Xi made a commitment for China's carbon dioxide emissions to peak by 2030, there has been no mention of biofuels as part of meeting this goal. Post estimates China's 2021 actual blend rate at 2.1 percent, up slightly from 2020 but still well below the peak blend rate of 2.8 percent from ten years ago. China's 2021 biodiesel production is forecast at 1.7 billion liters, up by more than 54 percent from 2020 due to strong exports. Any progress on advanced biofuels production and expansion continues to lag.
The Government of Morocco has released its final wheat and barley production numbers for the 2021 crop, including 5.06 MMT of common wheat, 2.48 MMT of durum wheat, and 2.78 MMT of barley. On September 7, 2021, the National Interprofessional Office of Cereals and Pulses (ONICL) issued an import tender for 363,636 MT of common wheat from the United States under the Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) with auction results to be announced September 21, 2021. Given Morocco's strong production in MY 2021/22, Post expects no changes to Morocco's current customs duties for common wheat or durum wheat through December 31, 2021.
Post projects 2022 Paraguayan beef production to reach 570,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, as a projected smaller slaughter is expected to reduce beef production by 40,000 tons from 2021. This decline will have a direct impact on Paraguayan beef exports which forecast are at 430,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, 8.5 percent less than the record exports expected for 2021.
Thailand's pet food market experienced steady growth due to the rise of "pet humanisation" and an increasing cat population. These phenomena benefited all imported pet food and increased demand for higher-quality products. Although the imported products occupy only 6% of market share and the market is dominated by local producers, there is room for more imported products.
Turkey announced the elimination of tariffs on some pulses and grains. According to a Presidential Decree published in the Official Gazette on September 8, 2021, the import tariffs on chickpeas, lentils, and wheat, rye, barley, oats, and sorghum (only seed for sewing) are reduced to zero until December 31, 2021.
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