Driven by strong internal demand and larger exports, and with fewer HPAI outbreaks, EU chicken meat production is expected to grow by two percent in CY 2026. In 2026, Poland will remain the largest EU chicken meat producer, accounting for more than 22 percent of total EU production. The EU trade surplus in chicken meat is expected to increase in CY 2026 as HPAI related bans are lifted and imports from Ukraine are increasingly constrained by EU policy and regulations.
Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) announced that the tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for butter (8,000–10,000 MT) and non-fat dry milk (750 MT) will remain unchanged for Japanese Fiscal Year 2026. Butter demand is expected to remain robust, while NFDM demand continues to be stagnant. MAFF will closely monitor the butter supply in light of production uncertainties. The TRQ levels will also be reviewed in May and September. The Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corporation (ALIC) will continue to manage the TRQ tenders in accordance with Japan's WTO commitments.
The Netherlands is increasingly becoming one of Europe's leading international traders of seafood products. The United States was the Netherlands' 15th largest foreign supplier of seafood in 2024. U.S. exports were dominated by frozen Alaskan pollock (AP) which represented two-thirds of U.S. seafood trade to the Netherlands. Other products imported from the United States were wild salmon, flatfish, hake, cod, squid, and dogfish. Per capita consumption of seafood has decreased somewhat in recent years, driven by the fact that fish is mainly consumed by older consumers and is not popular among young consumers. Also, fish is bought less often, and fewer different species are bought. Sales through specialized fish shops are down while sales via fish stalls are up. Growth opportunities for U.S. seafood exporters can be found in the seafood processing industry and the higher-end HRI-foodservice industry.
The Republic of Korea (ROK)'s soybean crushing volumes are forecast to stay below both processing capacity and the three-year average in marketing year (MY) 2026/27, reflecting weak crushing demand due to favorable global prices for soybean byproducts. The ROK government announced that starting in 2026 they will discontinue voluntary add-ons to the food soybean WTO tariff-rate quota (TRQ) to promote domestic soybeans, resulting in market loss for U.S. exports. Soybean meal will remain the dominant protein source in compound feed production, though dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) are gaining market share. Soybean oil imports continue to rise, offsetting declining domestic crushing to meet demand for soybean oil as the primary edible oil in the Korean market. Shares of U.S. soybean oil continue to fluctuate based on export availability and increasing competition as Korean buyers diversify to new countries of origin for sourcing crude or refined soybean oil.
Tunisian MY 2026/27 soybean imports are expected to reach 595,000 MT, compared to 580,000 MT in MY 2025/26 as demand for animal feed increases slightly with growing demand for proteins driven by a stronger tourism sector. Tunisian olive oil exports are forecast to drop to 240,000 MT in MY 2026/27, compared to 400,000 MT in MY 2025/26 reflecting the alternating high and low fruit bearing cycle of olive production.
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