The following GAIN reports were released on October 20, 2021.
Improving domestic dairy production to reduce reliance on imports remains a priority of the government of Algeria. In March 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) launched a livestock farm census as part of the Agricultural General Census. Starting September 1, 2021, several animal derived food products and products of animal origin including some dairy products are banned from imports.
For the past 12 years, drought limited pasture for grazing and forced down milk production. In MY2021 milk receipts remained flat at 1,171 million liters. However, domestic demand for dairy products remains strong, pushing up total imports 35.8 percent in MY2021. The United States is the main supplier of dairy products to Chile with a 21.6 percent market share in MY2020. In MY2022, Post estimates that whole milk powder production will increase by 10.8 percent to reach 72,000 metric tons. Imports will also increase to 9,000 MT to cover domestic consumption. Post projects MY2022 skim milk powder production to increase by 6.3 percent to 17,000 MT, while imports remain flat at 10,000 MT.
In 2022, China's raw milk production is forecast to reach 36.7 million metric tons, a 3 percent increase, as producers make operational investments that should return more milk, per cow milk production improves, and additional facilities come online. Whole milk powder beginning stocks and domestic production in 2022 will weigh on imports, which are forecast to decline 6 percent to 850 thousand metric tons. Imports of skim milk powder, cheese and butter are projected to grow to meet rising demand from the bakery sector, use in processed products, and retail consumers. In 2022, whey and whey related imports are forecast lower as infant birth rates decline and animal feed sector demand weakens on lower livestock/meat prices. FAS China proposed revisions to Post's cheese data series are included in this report.
In MY 2021/22, Colombian corn, rice, and wheat demand are forecast to recover as Colombia returns to pre-pandemic economic growth levels. In MY 2021/22, corn production is forecast to increase to 1.5 million MT driven by higher prices, while rice production is forecast to decrease to 1.8 million MT due to low domestic prices. Colombia's rice imports will be insignificant compared to past years, due to large domestic production in MY 2020/21 and low domestic prices that caused a 93 percent non-allocation of the U.S. rice tariff-rate quota in 2021. In MY 2020/21, U.S. market share of Colombian corn and wheat imports has been hurt by the strong U.S. dollar, high international prices, and increased competition.
FAS Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypt's wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (July – June) at 12.4 MMT, up from the previous marketing year estimate due to higher consumption driven by population growth. Egypt's wheat production in MY 2021/22 is also up from the previous marketing year. Egypt's corn production expanded significantly in response to high prices, while rice production fell sharply as the government enforced restrictions on its planted area. Consequently, corn imports are forecast lower, while rice imports are expected up to offset the production shortfall.
Fluid milk production should increase about one percent in 2022 as a greater number of heifers enter milk production. Meanwhile, weak demand for dairy products in the hotel, restaurant and institutional food sector (HRI) will push surplus drinking milk toward further processing into butter, non-fat dry milk, and cheese, for which ending stocks will finish higher in 2021. In turn, imports of butter and NFDM will fall or remain flat through 2022, at which point the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions should release pent-up demand and require the gradual increase in imports.
Morocco's hotel, restaurant and institutional industry (HRI) experienced an unprecedented shutdown due to state of health emergency measures related to COVID-19. Morocco's HRI industry is struggling due to a drop-off in tourism and COVID-19 measures that restricted restaurant dining in 2021. Implementation of the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement (FTA) resulted in the phase-out of many tariffs for consumer-oriented products in 2020.
The Philippines imports 99 percent of its dairy requirement as domestic production cannot meet the annual demand of 2.9 million metric tons (MT) liquid milk equivalent, according to the National Dairy Authority (NDA). Following declines in demand in 2021 due to the pandemic, dairy imports are expected to recover in 2022 as the economy reopens, most of the population is vaccinated, and customers return to restaurants. Skim milk powder imports are forecast to reach 175,000 MT in 2022, 6 percent higher than the previous year, while fluid milk imports rise 4 percent to 115,000 MT over the same period. Cheese imports in 2022 are expected to continue the growth seen in 2021, increasing 4 percent in 2022 to 52,000 MT. Meanwhile, the NDA will continue to implement the U.S. PL480-funded dairy improvement program, importing animals to boost cow, buffalo, and goat milk production.
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