| The following GAIN reports were released on June 22, 2021. _______ The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 is forecast at 390.8 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 15.94 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of seven percent relative to the current season. Although citrus trees are in the on-year of the production cycle, adverse weather notably affected the production potential for the upcoming season. Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2020/21 are forecast relatively stable at 1.050 million metric tons (mt), an increase of 18,000 mt vis-à-vis MY 2019/20. In 2020, China's overall retail sales decreased 4 percent while online retail sales increased 11 percent due to the pandemic's effects on consumer habits. In the first four months of 2021, retail sales of consumer goods rebounded, increasing 29.6 percent compared to the same period in 2020. Online food and grocery sales increased an impressive 31 percent in 2020 as residents dined out less and online platforms met consumer demand for contactless delivery. Major retail trends include the continued move toward unifying e-commerce and brick-and-mortar retail, enhanced food and grocery delivery services, the growth of live streaming, and the rapid development of the community group buying platform. In 2020, imports of consumer-oriented food products from the world reached $82 billion, an increase of 13.7 percent compared to 2019. U.S. exports of consumer-oriented food products to China increased 69 percent to a record $5.4 billion in 2020, driven by strong growth in pork, beef, and poultry meat. In 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak cut EU gasoline and diesel use by 13.0 and 9.4 percent, respectively. Bioethanol and biodiesel consumption, however fell by a lower percentage (10.1 and 3.5 percent, respectively) because biofuels use was supported by the ten percent blending target for transport fuels in 2020. Another important factor was the expanding domestic supply of hydrogenation derived renewable diesel. The reduced demand also led to a decline in production of bioethanol and biodiesel (10.1 and 2.0 percent, respectively). With the gradual lifting of the lockdowns and reinforced by the post-2020 Renewable Energy Directive (known as REDII) support measures, biofuel consumption is forecast to pick up again in 2021 but remain below the pre-COVID level of 2019. Additionally, the EU remained the world's largest wood pellet market in 2020, with consumption of roughly 30.4 million metric tons (MMT). EU wood pellet demand is expected to further expand in 2021 to 32.3 MMT. On May 20, 2021 the Department of Food and Public Distribution, under the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Government of India, slashed its sugar export subsidy by $27.32 per metric ton under the Maximum Admissible Export Quota (MAEQ). This assistance program facilitates sugar exports and subsidizes any related additional production costs for domestic sugar mills. The move aims to accelerate diversion of sugar toward ethanol production as India inches closer to its immediate blending goal of E-10 by 2022, while gradually reining in subsidized exports of Indian sugar in the global markets. This report gives an overview of the Italian food retail and distribution sectors and outlines current market trends, including best product prospects. Italy's food retail sales reached $175 billion in 2020, 5.6 percent more than in 2019. While on-line grocery shopping grew by 134.4 percent, increased sales were also registered in discount stores (+8.7 percent), supermarkets (+6.8 percent), and grocery retailers (+5.6 percent). Conversely, sales in hypermarkets (-3.4 percent) were penalized by the closure of shopping centers during COVID-19 lockdown. In 2019, the volume of organic product imports from the United States to Japan reached a record level totaling 17,846 metric tons (MT). This most current data from 2019 also reveals both the non-processed and processed organic product categories continue to see trade growth. The U.S.-Japan organic equivalency arrangement provides bilateral trade benefits and in July 2020 was further expanded to include livestock products. In 2017, the organic product market in Japan was estimated to be valued at $1.85 billion. While still limited in scope, ATO believes the organic products market in Japan continues to incrementally grow. The organics market will be further encouraged by the Government of Japan's recent Green Food System Strategy (MeaDRI) announcement and continued implementation of the 2019 action plan for Sustainable Development Goals. High price increases on input costs such as electricity, fertilizer, and chemicals continue. Fertilizer prices are especially worrisome for Turkish producers, with a 60-90 percent increase in the last marketing year. In MY 2020/21, orange production is estimated to decrease 1.3 million MT, which is 23 percent lower than MY 2019/20 (1.7 million MT), due to excessive hot weather conditions in May 2020 during the blooming period of trees. In MY 2020/21, orange exports are forecast to decrease 10 percent to 263,000 MT when compared with the previous season, in correlation with low yield expectation. In MY 2020/21, Post revises tangerine production forecast to increase 14 percent to 1.6 million MT with good harvest quality due to the favorable timing of rains and temperatures. Turkish tangerine exports started well in MY 2020/21 for exports mostly to Russia, Ukraine, and Iraq and reached 890, 595 MT as of April 2021, which is 8 percent higher than the same period of the previous season. The UK retail sector is one of the most sophisticated in the world. The UK was one of the first to pioneer 'Click and Collect' and online grocery shopping. COVID-19 has seen the way in which consumers shopping patterns changed in the past year with online shopping far more popular. Consumers are more health conscious and are choosing to shop more locally. The four leading supermarket chains compete fiercely for customers with the discount chains increasing their market share yearly. Within the UK retail sector, grocery retailing continues to record the biggest growth. Convenience stores, discounters and online grocery are formats seeing the strongest expansion, with chains opening smaller stores in city centers while limiting large-format outlets in out-of-town locations. Tariffs and 'Buy British' campaigns are the biggest challenge for U.S. companies. Products with the biggest opportunities are those that have a healthy, sustainable, and environmentally friendly message.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. | 
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