| The following GAIN reports were released on Monday, May 17, 2021. _______ The production forecast for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is 5.5 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags, a twelve percent reduction from the previous year. Favorable weather conditions for a higher incidence of leaf rust are forecast and are expected to impact production directly. COVID-19 incidence is expected to remain high in Honduras and post-hurricane road infrastructure rehabilitation efforts will still be underway. As a consequence, MY2021/22 export forecast is 5 million bags, down to MY 2019/2020 levels. Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2021/22 coffee production (Oct/Sep) to increase by 5 percent to 5.41 million 60-kilogram bags. Above normal pre-monsoon rains coupled with expectations of a normal monsoon are expected to improve yields, especially for Robusta in major growing regions. Exports are estimated at 5.68 million 60-kilogram bags due to robust demand in Europe and the United States. This export increase will lead to tighter stocks. Domestic coffee consumption is estimated at 1.2 million 60-kilogram bags, driven by at-home consumption as the hospitality sector remains closed due to COVID-19 lockdown measures. Coffee production is forecast to modestly decline to 10.63 million (60 kilogram) bags in 2021/22 on lower yields in Robusta and Arabica growing regions. Consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels as various social distancing restrictions continue to hamper food service sector growth. Green bean imports are expected to continue to decline as industry utilizes more competitively priced local beans. Although early indications were for a near-record New Zealand apple crop in 2020/2021, a number of factors have tempered expectations, and production is now estimated to have slumped eight percent from the previous year to 543,000 metric tons (MT). Two of these factors have been hailstorms causing widespread damage in key apple areas, as well as generally smaller-sized apples this year due to a cooler summer. In addition to reduced production, the impact on exports is being exacerbated by severe staffing shortages during the harvest. Because of these shortages, orchardists were not able to do the number of harvest picks in each orchard block necessary to maximize the proportion of export quality fruit. As a result, more New Zealand apples are expected to flow into processing this year.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. | 
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