The following GAIN reports were released on December 16, 2024. _______ In marketing year (MY) 2024/25 Bulgaria harvested its lowest oilseed crop for more than a decade due to extremely hot and dry summer weather conditions impacting yields. The total oilseed crop for sunflower, rapeseed and soybeans is estimated at just over 1.6 million metric tons (MMT), compared to 2.0 MMT the previous year. FAS/Sofia has made further reductions in its estimates based on the final harvest data. The current FAS/Sofia estimate for the rapeseed crop is at 175,000 MT, down by 15 percent from last year. In MY 2023/24, Bulgaria was a net importer of rapeseed with growing trade driven by expanding domestic crush capacities and this trend is projected to strengthen in MY 2024/25 with forecast imports of above 200,000 MT. The sunflower crop is estimated to fall to 1.5 MMT in MY 2024/25, also down by 15 percent from last year, despite higher planted area. These developments have resulted in a deficit of oilseeds, prices creeping upward, a decline in oilseed exports, higher imports, and sluggish crush. Between December 14, 2024, and February 15, 2025, certain goods imported into Canada, including certain foods and beverages, will benefit from a temporary relief on applicable sales taxes. The 5 percent Goods and Services Tax (GST) will not be charged across the country, while in some provinces the applicable Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) will also not be charged. New labeling requirements for dairy products that may impact U.S. exports to Chile will come into effect on January 9, 2025. In the first ten months of 2024, U.S. exports of consumer-oriented food and beverages to Hong Kong reached nearly $1 billion, on par with the same period in 2023. Hong Kong restaurant receipts declined slightly to $10.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2024 due to lower consumer discretionary spending. Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow 2.5 percent in 2024, and some industry contacts are cautiously optimistic that increased visitors, particularly from mainland China, will increase hotel and food service revenues in 2025. This report provides background on Hong Kong's hotel, restaurant, and institutional food service sector and prospects for U.S. food and beverage products. This report refers to both calendar year 2023 and partial calendar year 2024 data to provide appropriate comparisons and up-to-date market information. FAS New Delhi expects India's peanut oilseed production to rise by 18 percent in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 and reach 7.2 million metric tons (MMT) due to higher market prices, an increased planting area of 5.6 million hectares, and the use of high-yielding varieties that produced higher yields. Peanut oil production for MY 2024/2025 is revised higher at 1.35 MMT, considering edible oil demand in the domestic market and supported by higher crushing rates. Peanut meal production is increased to 1.6 MMT due to the demand in the animal feed industry. Soybean oil production is increased to 2.5 MMT due to more "crush-to-oil" availability. Post's forecast for MY 2024/2025 palm oil imports is revised to 8.9 MMT, due to the newly levied import duty on edible oils. The ongoing transformation of Saudi Arabia bodes well for the retail food sector. In 2023, the Saudi food retail market was estimated at more than $51 billion and projected to increase by more than 5 percent annually in the coming years due to the continued urbanization, growing population, changing shopping habits, expansion of physical store locations , and increasing popularity of online platforms. Saudi consumers prefer U.S. agricultural products, and the United States is well-positioned to gain additional market share over the next several years. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. |
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