| The following Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) reports were released on Wednesday, March 31, 2021.
Indonesia: Food Processing Ingredients Indonesia currently imports 62 percent of raw materials for its growing food processing industry. The market presents significant opportunities for a range of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, wheat, dairy, distillers' grains, fresh fruit, and beef and beef products. De-spite tariff disadvantages, the U.S. remains Indonesia's largest supplier of agricultural products, exporting nearly $3 billion of products in 2020.
Mexico cotton production is forecast to increase 22 percent for marketing year (MY) 2021/22, on increased global prices and ongoing drought conditions that favor cotton production over other more water reliant crops. However, final production and fiber quality is likely to fluctuate, as producers continue to face a number of challenges including seed, water, and input availability. Poor quality supplies are typically destined for export to Asia, as the domestic industry prefers high quality domestic supplies and imports from the United States. Post forecasts an increase in MY 2021/22 imports based on uncertainty of domestic fiber quality. Meanwhile, consumption is forecast down from MY 2020/21 levels on low consumer purchasing power after a significant contraction in the Mexican economy in 2020 and a forecasted sluggish recovery.
For a small country, New Zealand is a major exporter of food and beverage products, and many of these products are manufactured in-country and require inputs imported from other countries. The United States is a key supplier of ingredients including pork, lactose, tree nuts, hops and other products. The U.S. also supplies ingredients for animal feed. Since the pandemic broke, New Zealand has recovered well with consumption patterns returning to almost pre-COVID levels.
The growth in Taiwan's dog and cat food market reflects a societal shift towards animals as pets. With rising incomes and strong western influence, pets are now a symbol of affluence in Taiwan. Industry sources indicate more and more pet owners are purchasing commercially produced pet food instead of using table scraps. Taiwan's pet food imports have more than doubled over the past decade, growing from US$88 million in 2010 to US$194 million in 2020. The United States is the leading supplier of premium pet food and treats to Taiwan where countries such as Thailand are the go-to source for lower priced product.
Rice production and exports are expected to recover in 2022. MY2021/22 corn consumption is forecast to slow down due to a shrinking supply of locally produced corn and tighter supplies of imported corn from neighboring countries. MY2021/22 wheat imports are forecast to increase 3 percent in line with the expected gradual economic recovery in 2021 and 2022.
Post estimates cattle numbers to increase 1 percent in 2021 to 18.3 million head, which aligns with recent average growth rate in the industry, due to government incentives for newborn calves. An increasing number of cows sent to slaughter, fewer breeding incentives, and feeder cattle import restrictions imposed by late 2019 are the main factors limiting additional production. In 2021, cattle imports are estimated to be 50 percent lower than 2020 as a result of the restriction on feeder cattle imports established in 2019. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MinAF) announced in early 2020 that feeder cattle imports will be completely stopped by 2022. Post has revised meat production in 2021 to be slightly higher than 2020, with a total of 1.1 MMT, despite the stagnate feeder cattle population. In 2021, beef imports are forecast to decline 10 percent to 5,600 CWT due to the Ministry's policy to drastically limit imports through high tariffs to protect domestic producers.
The United Arab Emirates' consumption and imports of grain and feed are projected to increase over the coming year. Rice and wheat consumption will grow with the UAE's economic recovery, spurred by one of the world's fastest vaccination drives. Growing herds will help lift demand for corn and barley. A government push for greater food security through a strategic stockpile will lift all imports. FAS Dubai forecasts UAE all wheat imports to increase by 13 percent to 1.7 MMT. Rice imports are forecast to increase by 15 percent to 1.150 MMT. UAE MY2021/22 corn imports are forecast to increase by roughly 8 percent to reach 700,000 MT, and barley imports in MY2021/22 are forecast to increase 6 percent to reach 500,000 MT.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
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Thursday, April 1, 2021
GAIN Reports from Wednesday, March 31, 2021
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