| The following Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) reports were released on Tuesday, April 6, 2021.
Algeria: Grain and Feed Annual The Minister of Agriculture indicated that Algeria's (2020-2021) agricultural season foresees a good crop harvest if supplemental irrigation is well implemented. The new agricultural five-year roadmap (2020-2024) aims to significantly reduce imports by $2.5 billion of some expensive agricultural commodities. Opportunities exist for U.S. suppliers or investors for grain silos. The Ministry of Agriculture will launch a series of silos construction projects to increase grain storage.
Post maintains its corn production forecast for MY 2020/21 (March 2021–February 2022) at 105 million metric tons (MMT), based on the smaller-than-expected first crop of corn paired with widespread delayed planting of second-crop "safrinha" corn. For MY 2021/22 (March 2022–February 2023), Post sets its initial corn production forecast at 114 MMT. Post raises its estimate for MY 2020/21 milled rice production to 7.48 million metric tons MMT, consistent with the expansion of area paired with a return to trend yields. Post projects that milled rice production will grow to 7.82 MMT in MY 2020/21 (April 2021–March 2022). Post sets its initial forecast for MY 2021/22 (October 2021–September 2022) wheat area at 2.6 million hectares. Factoring in trend yields, Post projects MY 2021/22 wheat production will hit 7.05 MMT, which would set a new record for the crop.
Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Annual Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area to reach 40 million hectares (ha) in 2021/22 season, up from the estimated 38.5 mn ha planted in the 2020/21 season. Post forecasts 2021/22 soybean production at 141 million metric tons (MMT), up from the estimated 134 MMT harvest this season. Soybean expansion is forecast on current market conditions and trends - including strong demand, high prices, and a favorable exchange rate. All these conditions are expected to persist well into the 2021/22 season. Soybean exports are forecast to hit records this season and next at 85 MMT and then 87 MMT. Peanut planted area and production are also forecast to rise on the same factors. Cottonseed area and production will rebound next season (2021/22) after a dip in the current season.
Bulgaria: Oilseeds and Products Annual FAS Sofia expects Bulgarian oilseed production to rebound in marketing year (MY) 2021/22. As of late March, rapeseed development was off to a promising start with total production projected to reach up to 330,000 metric tons (MT), assuming favorable weather through harvest. Encouraged by record-high prices, Bulgaria's sunflower area is forecast to increase. Sunflower yields are projected to recover after hot and dry conditions in MY 2020/21, leading to production's growth to 2.0 MMT. MY 2020/21 exports of rapeseed and sunflower seeds have lagged behind previous season due to the weather-related production drop, higher on-farm storage, and increased domestic crush demand. Currently, rapeseed exports are estimated at 220,000 MT, a year-on-year decline of over 40 percent. Sunflower exports are estimated at around 900,000 MT, a decline of over 20 percent from the previous MY. Feed use is likely to grow and coincide with the recovery of Bulgaria's swine inventory.
The Burmese military's February 1, 2021 coup will negatively impact agricultural trade at least in the short-term due to the country-wide Civil Disobedience Movement, which involves widespread labor strikes in opposition to the military's action. Burma's rice and corn exports in MY 2021/22 are projected to grow due to recovery of production area and high price incentives. Burma's wheat imports are projected to increase in MY 2021/22 due to increasing consumption of wheat-derived products. U.S. wheat will have reduced competitiveness since Australian wheat can be imported duty-free under the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area.
Chile: Food Processing Ingredients Chile has consolidated its reputation as one of the main players in the global food industry. According to Chilealimentos A.G. (Chile's Food Processors Association) food sales in Chile reached $44.4 billion in 2020, which represents a 7.8 percent decrease of sales compared to 2019, and Chilean domestic food sales reached $27 billion in 2020. Chile is among the top fifteen agricultural exporters in the world, and its main agricultural exports are wine, blueberries, cherries, grapes, prunes, dehydrated apples, salmon and mussels. In 2020, food exports decreased 3.4 percent over 2019, mainly due to lower volumes of salmon, trout and fresh fruits export shipments. Currently, Chile exports 77 percent of its food as fresh and semi-processed food products, and the remainder 23 percent as processed food products. In addition, Chile enjoys a robust commercial network thanks to its 30 trade agreements with 65 countries.
Egypt: Oilseeds and Products Annual Marketing year 2019/20 was another record year for U.S.-origin soybean exports to Egypt. The United States, with 3.83 MMT, was Egypt's largest supplier of soybeans as Egypt's crushing industry continued to expand. Egypt's soybean imports in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (October-September) are forecast at 4.6 million metric tons (MMT), up 200,000 MT from the MY 2020/21 estimate. Soybean meal consumption in MY 2021/22 is forecast at 3.9 million metric tons. Soybean oil consumption is forecast at 1.03 MMT, up 1.98 percent from the MY 2020/21 estimate. FAS Cairo forecasts Egypt's soybean, sunflower, and palm oil consumption for food and industrial use in MY 2021/22 at about 2.63 MMT, up 2.33 percent compared to the MY 2020/21 volume of 2.57 million metric tons. From MY 2016/17 to MY 2019/20, Egyptian imports of Palm oil, Sunflower oil and Soy oil accounted for 5.18 MMT. During this period, Palm oil imports accounted for 3.27 MMT, Sunflower imports were 1.14 MMT followed by soybean oil imports at 700,000 MT.
Greece: Cotton and Products Annual In MY 2020/21, cotton production is estimated at 1.4 million 480 lb. bales, down 16.4 percent from the previous season due to a decrease in area planted, unfavorable weather conditions during harvest, and average yields. Greece is a major cotton exporter. Turkey was the main destination in MY 2019/20, accounting for approximately 52 percent of all exports.
France: Food Processing Ingredients The food processing industry an important sector for France. In general, it has successfully managed the Covid-19 crisis by adapting to cost increases and more stringent sanitary measures. Food processing industry statistics have not yet released for 2020, but in 2019, the sector was valued at $212 billion with over 17,000 food processors, from small family-owned businesses to some of the largest food companies in the world. Progress in food technology, marketing innovations, and exports of finished food products contribute to France's increasing demand for food ingredients. Exports of processed foods are higher than other large industrial sectors in France and its food industry is the third largest in the world behind Germany and the United States.
Indonesia: Cotton and Products Annual Following a 20 percent decline in 2020/21, cotton imports are forecast higher in 2021/22 on stronger global and domestic demand for textile and textile products. The global pandemic continues to pose challenges for Indonesian industry as weaker demand, higher cotton prices and production costs, and supply chain challenges tighten margins.
Indonesia: Grain and Feed Annual Larger harvested area and improved economic conditions are expected to increase corn production in 2021/22 to 12.0 million tons. Higher poultry consumption and comparatively lower prices for local corn are expected to increase corn consumption for feed production and lower demand for imported wheat in the feed sector. The Government of Indonesia (GOI) has announced intentions to import 1 million tons of rice in 2021 to maintain sufficient stock levels and stable prices.
Paraguay: Oilseeds and Products Annual 2021/2022 Paraguayan soybean production is projected at 10.5 million tons as a return to normal climatic conditions allow for increased second-crop soybean planting. Exports are forecast at 6.5 million tons. 2020/2021 soybean production is lowered to 9.9 million tons as a delayed harvest prevented farmers from planting second-crop soybeans. Crush is reduced to 3.3 million tons as plants received soybeans late and will have fewer operating days in the marketing year. Exports are forecast up at 6.75 million tons due to lowered crush volume.
South Africa: Oilseeds and Products Annual Post predicts that South Africa's positive trend in soybean plantings will continue in the 2021/22 MY in line increased local crushing capacity. The COVID-19 pandemic has not impacted the industry in the 2020/21 MY, as soybean production is expected to increase by almost 40 percent to a historical high level of 1.7 million tons on a record planted area and favorable weather conditions. As a result, South Africa will crush a record 2.2 million tons of oilseeds, producing 1.5 million tons of oilseed meal in the 2020/21 MY. Due to the increase in local production, soybean meal imports are expected to drop to the lowest level in the past two decades at 350,000 tons for both the 2021/22 MY and 2020/21 MY. Post predicts that sunflower area will move back to trend line and increase by 15 percent in the 2021/22 MY, after an expected 12 percent drop in sunflower production to 696,290 tons in the 2020/21 MY. As a result, Post expects edible oil imports to drop to 940,000 tons in the 2021/22 MY.
South Korea: Grain and Feed Annual FAS/Seoul projects Korea's corn imports and consumption to increase in 2021/22, recovering from a projected 3 percent decline in imports during the current marketing year. 2021/22 domestic rice production is expected to jump 8 percent, driven by rising prices following low production in the prior year. Korea's rice imports are consistently close to the 408,700 metric ton (MT) tariff rate quota (TRQ), due to exorbitantly high out of quota tariffs. Korean wheat consumption in 2021/22 should remain unchanged from the current year.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
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Wednesday, April 7, 2021
GAIN Reports from Tuesday, April 6, 2021
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