Wednesday, April 2, 2025

GAIN Reports from April 1, 2025

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The following GAIN reports were released on April 1, 2025.

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Chile: Grain and Feed Annual

For marketing year (MY) 2025/26, Post estimates that the wheat area harvested will total 193,000 hectares (ha), representing a 1.0 percent decrease from MY 2024/25 due to high input costs and low prices. Wheat production is expected to reach 1.158 million metric tons (MMT). Wheat imports are projected to increase by 2.8 percent over MY 2024/25, reaching 1.30 million metric tons to cover domestic consumption needs. In MY 2025/26, Post forecasts corn production to reach 551,000 metric tons (MT), a slight decrease from MY 2024/25 due to unchanged area harvested and slightly lower yields. Corn imports are expected to increase by 2.0 percent, totaling 2.55 MMT to meet the feed demand from the pork and poultry industry.

 

Egypt: Cotton and Products Annual

Post forecasts Egypt's MY 2025/26 cotton production at 320,000 bales, down 25 percent from the previous season due to a significant decrease in area harvested. In MY 2024/25, the government-established auction prices more than doubled from the previous year, discouraging private traders from procuring local production and resulting in higher carryover stocks. As a result, Egyptian farmers are expected to plant less in MY 2025/26. However, Post forecasts MY 2025/26 exports at 300,000 bales, 66 percent higher than MY 2024/25, on steady demand and exports being more competitively priced relative to international prices. Domestic consumption is estimated at 750,000 bales in MY 2025/26, up 3.4 percent from USDA's MY 2024/25 official figure, on expanded spinning and weaving capacity, supported by the Egyptian public sector and international investments.

 

India: Food Processing Ingredients Annual

India's food processing sector holds significant growth potential in tier II and III cities and rural areas. This report aims to guide U.S. companies who wish to export processed food ingredients to India, where rising demand for healthy snacking and consumer-oriented food products provides ample opportunity to introduce U.S. processed, fresh, and packaged food and beverages into the market. However, complexities remain due to high tariffs, erratic trade and regulatory restrictions, and strong competition from domestic and international suppliers.

 

Indonesia: Grain and Feed Annual

Sustained rainfall due to a subsiding El Nino and a weak La Nina that is predicted to last until April 2025 will likely lead to increased rice and corn production in 2024/25. Food self-sufficiency policies prioritized by Indonesia's new administration, combined with a weakening Indonesian rupiah, and higher production are expected to severely curtail imports of corn and rice in 2024/25. Although the new President's flagship Free Nutritious Meals program is slated to be well funded, it is expected to have limited effect on food and feed demand during its first year of implementation as suppliers await more certainty and clarity on procurement regulations before making operational adjustments.

 

Japan: Food Processing Ingredients Annual

In 2024, Japan's food processing sector had a 3.9 percent increase in the value of food produced, totaling $174 billion. Production increases occurred in dairy, alcoholic beverages, tea, coffee and cocoa, and health foods.

 

Mexico: Avocado Annual

Mexico's 2025 avocado production is forecast at 2.75 million metric tons (MMT), a three percent increase over 2024 on strong export demand. Exports are forecast at 1.34 MMT in 2025, up five percent year-on-year. The United States is Mexico's number one export market and is the destination for 80 percent of exports by volume. The United States is followed by Canada (seven percent) and Japan (three percent). Mexico's per capita avocado consumption grew nearly ten percent in 2024 to about 27 pounds. Due to growing domestic production imports remain limited and are declining; they are forecast to fall ten percent in 2025 to 3,800 MT.

 

Mexico: Cotton and Products Annual

Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2025/26 production at 0.86 million 480-lb bales, a 16 percent decrease compared to the previous MY due to high input costs, severe drought conditions, low international cotton prices, power outages, and lack of access to new genetically engineered seed varieties. MY 2025/26 cotton consumption is forecast unchanged from the previous year primarily on slow domestic demand growth and increased competition from synthetic fibers and yarn imports from Asia.

 

Netherlands: Food Processing Ingredients Annual

In 2024, the Dutch food processing industry continued to face challenges due to geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty, and rising raw material costs, all of which are causing price fluctuations. Labor costs are also increasing, driven by higher wages from collective labor agreements and an ongoing worker shortage. Energy costs remain high due to taxes on electricity and natural gas, though they have slightly decreased since 2023. Meanwhile, packaging and logistics costs have stabilized but are still above 2021 levels, adding to production expenses. Despite these difficulties, the pressure on consumers' purchasing power continues to grow, and food prices are expected to remain elevated throughout 2024.

 

Pakistan: Oilseeds and Products Annual

Following the resumption of genetically engineered soybean imports after two years, soybean imports are forecast to rebound to 2 million tons in 2025/26. With a slight increase in domestic production expected, rapeseed imports are forecast to decline. Meanwhile, population growth will continue to drive consumer demand for cooking oil, and palm oil imports are expected to continue rising. Domestic oilseed production is forecast to increase slightly in 2025/26, as farmers switch from wheat to rapeseed.

 

Panama: Food Processing Ingredients Annual

This report provides information to U.S. exporters of agricultural and related products on how to do business with the Food Processing industry in Panama. It is primarily a service – based economy, but food processing is one of its top industries. These include dairy processors, meat, poultry, fishery, fruits, beverages and spirits, bakery, snacks among others. Opportunities for U.S. – origin ingredient suppliers are in demand as the Panamanian industry is benefiting from the latest trends of substitute plant-based alternatives and consumer dietary preferences for processed food from whole grains, legumes (beans, peas, lentils), vegetables, fruits, seeds, and nuts.

 

Tunisia: Grain and Feed Annual

Highly favorable winter growing conditions set Tunisia up for a well above average 2025 harvest. The wheat and barley crops have developed very well entering the most critical growing period in April. Post forecasts MY 2025/26 wheat and barley production at 1.35 MMT and 500,000 MT, respectively, with imports at 1.7 MMT and 450,000 MT. Wheat and barley forecasted imports represent roughly a 10% and 40% decrease respectively compared to estimated imports in MY 2024/25.

 

 

For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.


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